Tag Archives: uncertainty

I Need A Speech Bubble To Appear Over My Head When I Talk So I Can Diagram the Bayesian Uncertainty In My Statements

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I don’t feel that it is necessary to know exactly what I am. The main interest in life and work is to become someone else that you were not in the beginning. If you knew when you began a book … Continue reading

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The actual science of logic is conversant at present only with things either certain, impossible, or entirely doubtful, none of which (fortunately) we have to reason on. Therefore the true logic for this world is the calculus of Probabilities, which … Continue reading

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Richard Posner has made a name for himself applying cost-benefit analysis to the law. In this book he asks how we should think about very very unlikely scenarios that are very, very bad. In Catastrophe, Posner wonders what the law … Continue reading

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