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Tag Archives: subjective probability
The actual science of logic is conversant at present only with things either certain, impossible, or entirely doubtful, none of which (fortunately) we have to reason on. Therefore the true logic for this world is the calculus of Probabilities, which … Continue reading
Irrationality in Economics, and “Subjective Probability”
I gave this talk several years ago, but you know what? It’s still pretty decent. Irrationality in Economics The title is misleading. Like many of my titles, it’s meant to grab attention rather than be exactly correct. I was trying, … Continue reading
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Tagged Alfred Charles Kinsey, Bayesian, Bayesian reasoning, Bayesian statistics, Bayesians, beta distribution, choice, decision theory, economic irrationality, economics, ecoonmic irrationality, Eliezer Yudkowsky, irrationality, Leonard Savage, mathematical psychology, microeconomics, poisson distribution, probability distributions, psychology, rationality, Robert Aumann, Robin Hanson, subjective probability, utility theory
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The word probability didn’t take on a likelihoodrelated meaning until maybe the 18th century. The original meaning was synonymous with “worthy of approval”. Also interesting: Ian Hacking suggests that the creation of probability & chance concepts was intimately tied to equiprobable outcomes, … Continue reading
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March 6, 2011
Tagged books, Bruno de Finnetti, Dutch books, epistemology, equiprobable, gambling, heroes, history, Ian Hacking, John Maynard Keynes, Leonard J Savage, literature, martingales, math, mathematics, maths, philosophy, probability, quantum communication, Reverend Thomas Bayes, subjective probability, vocabulary
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