Tag Archives: subjective probability

The actual science of logic is conversant at present only with things either certain, impossible, or entirely doubtful, none of which (fortunately) we have to reason on. Therefore the true logic for this world is the calculus of Probabilities, which … Continue reading

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Irrationality in Economics, and “Subjective Probability”

I gave this talk several years ago, but you know what? It’s still pretty decent. Irrationality in Economics   The title is misleading. Like many of my titles, it’s meant to grab attention rather than be exactly correct. I was trying, … Continue reading

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The word probability didn’t take on a likelihood-related meaning until maybe the 18th century. The original meaning was synonymous with “worthy of approval”. Also interesting: Ian Hacking suggests that the creation of probability & chance concepts was intimately tied to equiprobable outcomes, … Continue reading

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