Tag Archives: risk

A Conversation with Peter Thiel and Niall Ferguson 1990’s: The pace of technological change is getting faster! and the pace at which it’s getting faster is getting faster!! Soon we’ll all be cyborgs and live for 1000 years in the … Continue reading

Video | Posted on by | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

XIV does not get you short the VIX. Not even close. (Source: http://www.youtube.com/)

Video | Posted on by | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Smart Risks

One misconception I got from the academic theory of finance is that risk and reward go together. You take on more risk, you get more reward. This is formalised in CAPM theory as a higher expected return associated with a … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Gauging the frothiness of the webby/techy/san-fran VC market. Source: Mark Suster. Propagated via one of tumblr’s owners, who added: Based on the NVCA statistics on the venture capital industry, there are [approximately] 1,000 early stage financings every year…. And somewhere … Continue reading

Image | Posted on by | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

market makers are normally paranoid that the other side of the trade “knows” what is going on and that it is a pickoff. as a market maker, you think “what can i do against this that makes sense?” so you … Continue reading

Quote | Posted on by | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Pricing Risk

“Pricing” risk means, in part, assessing the probability of some sh*tty outcome. Like, “Well, Baggins, what are the chances that… interest rates move against us?” the company defaults on its debts?” a chain reaction based in the debts of South … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Pricing Risk

“Pricing” risk means, in part, assessing the probability of some sh*tty outcome. Like, “Well, Baggins, what are the chances that… interest rates move against us?” the company defaults on its debts?” a chain reaction based in the short-debts of South … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

When the price of a stock can be … set at the margin by the most emotional person, or the greediest person, or the most depressed person, it is hard to argue that the market prices rationally. Warren Buffett

Quote | Posted on by | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Richard Posner has made a name for himself applying cost-benefit analysis to the law. In this book he asks how we should think about very very unlikely scenarios that are very, very bad. In Catastrophe, Posner wonders what the law … Continue reading

Image | Posted on by | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Cost-Benefit Analysis

When faced with a choice, cost-benefit analysis asks: What are the possible outcomes? Who benefits and who is harmed in each of these outcomes? How much is the benefit or harm in each case?(Sometimes the harm might be multi-dimensional — … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment