Tag Archives: efficient markets hypothesis

The seeds of my dissent from economic orthodoxy were pretty much sown for me by my 1st professor on the 1st day of my 1st economics class. This prof had gone to a great personal trouble to begin our exposure to … Continue reading

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Free Money

@isomorphisms: Higgs Boson Particle to be observed on/before 31 Dec 2012 = 68.0% @Intrade bit.ly/MP3Eo0 @isomorphisms: Higgs 2013 = 80%, Higgs 2014 = 85%, Higgs 2015 = 80.1%. Oops #EMH #arb There’s $2 three years from now sitting on the … Continue reading

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[T]he Efficient Markets Hypothesis [is] in contention for one of the strongest hypotheses in the whole of the social sciences. Strictly speaking the EMH is false, but in spirit it is profoundly true. Besides, science concerns seeking the best hypothesis, … Continue reading

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market makers are normally paranoid that the other side of the trade “knows” what is going on and that it is a pickoff. as a market maker, you think “what can i do against this that makes sense?” so you … Continue reading

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When the price of a stock can be … set at the margin by the most emotional person, or the greediest person, or the most depressed person, it is hard to argue that the market prices rationally. Warren Buffett

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μ d𝓽 + σ dW𝓽, my #$$

μ dt + σ dWt, my #$$ The simplest model of a stock price movement is that the log of the price moves in a direction, plus some noisy drift (like adding a Gaussian W𝓽 at every timestep). Agustin Silvani … Continue reading

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