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Tag Archives: Bayesian
We showed in Chapter 6 that side information Y for the horse race X can be used to increase the growth rate by the mutual information I(X;Y). We now extend this result to the stock market. Here, I(X;Y) is an … Continue reading
Distance between Words
Which pair is more different? keyboard  keyb`ard keyboard  keybpard keyboard  keebored Of course in mathematics we get to decide among many definitions of size and there is no “correct” answer. Just what suits the application. I can … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Bayesian, big data, computer, distance, letters, machine learning, Markov property, math, mathematical modelling, mathematics, maths, privacy, text mining, typing, words
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I Need A Speech Bubble To Appear Over My Head When I Talk So I Can Diagram the Bayesian Uncertainty In My Statements
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Tagged Bayesian, belief, certainty, faith, hunch, language, logic, mathematics, philosophy, prior, prior distribution, probability, probability distributions, reasoning, statistics, supposition, truth, uncertainty, unsure, validity
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The actual science of logic is conversant at present only with things either certain, impossible, or entirely doubtful, none of which (fortunately) we have to reason on. Therefore the true logic for this world is the calculus of Probabilities, which … Continue reading
Irrationality in Economics, and “Subjective Probability”
I gave this talk several years ago, but you know what? It’s still pretty decent. Irrationality in Economics The title is misleading. Like many of my titles, it’s meant to grab attention rather than be exactly correct. I was trying, … Continue reading
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Tagged Alfred Charles Kinsey, Bayesian, Bayesian reasoning, Bayesian statistics, Bayesians, beta distribution, choice, decision theory, economic irrationality, economics, ecoonmic irrationality, Eliezer Yudkowsky, irrationality, Leonard Savage, mathematical psychology, microeconomics, poisson distribution, probability distributions, psychology, rationality, Robert Aumann, Robin Hanson, subjective probability, utility theory
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Contrary to common folklore, causal relationships can be distinguished from spurious covariations using inductive reasoning. Judea Pearl, Causality
Radiolab got it wrong