Tag Archives: Bayesian

We showed in Chapter 6 that side information Y for the horse race X can be used to increase the growth rate by the mutual information I(X;Y). We now extend this result to the stock market. Here, I(X;Y) is an … Continue reading

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Distance between Words

Which pair is more different? keyboard | keyb`ard keyboard | keybpard keyboard | keebored Of course in mathematics we get to decide among many definitions of size and there is no “correct” answer. Just what suits the application. I can … Continue reading

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I Need A Speech Bubble To Appear Over My Head When I Talk So I Can Diagram the Bayesian Uncertainty In My Statements

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The actual science of logic is conversant at present only with things either certain, impossible, or entirely doubtful, none of which (fortunately) we have to reason on. Therefore the true logic for this world is the calculus of Probabilities, which … Continue reading

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Irrationality in Economics, and “Subjective Probability”

I gave this talk several years ago, but you know what? It’s still pretty decent. Irrationality in Economics ¬† The title is misleading. Like¬†many of my titles, it’s meant to grab attention rather than be exactly correct. I was trying, … Continue reading

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Contrary to common folklore, causal relationships can be distinguished from spurious covariations using inductive reasoning. Judea Pearl, Causality

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Radiolab got it wrong

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